Red Oak 
 Value Increase
Sugar Maple 
 Value Increase
Summary Table

Tree Value Growth Rates Under Management for Tree Quality

(Volume and grade value increase rates in this table are expected averages across a wide range of site indexes and growing conditions.  See papers referenced in Assumptions, below.  If you think these rates are high, see the rates that US Forest Service researchers came up with for red oak and sugar maple in the attached pages.  Question: why weren't the results of their research widely publicized?)
 

SPECIES

KD TREE

TOTAL

GRADE

REAL MARKET

MANAGEMENT,

TOTAL NET

DBH

GRADE

VOLUME

VALUE

VALUE

TAXES, RISK

VALUE

   

% Per Year

% Per Year

% Per Year

% Per Year

% Per Year

Red Oak

           

12

4

6

14

5

-5

20

14

3

6

7

5

-4

14

16

2

5

3

4

-2

10

18

1

4

3

0

-1

6

 

Black Oak,
White Oak

           

12

4

5

8

2

-3

12

14

3

5

21

3

-6

23

16

2

4

6

4

-3

11

18

1

3

2

4

-2

7

 

Black Cherry

           

12

4

5

20

8

-8

25

14

3

5

9

8

-5

17

16

2

4

3

14

-5

16

18

1

3

3

11

-4

13

 

Sugar Maple

           

12

4

5

18

8

-6

25

14

3

5

7

8

-4

16

16

2

4

3

14

-4

17

18

1

3

3

11

-3

14

 

White Ash

           

12

4

5

9

7

-6

15

14

3

5

10

3

-6

12

16

2

4

4

2

-4

6

18

1

3

3

2

-4

4

 

Black Birch,
Yellow Birch

           

12

4

5

16

9

-6

24

14

3

5

4

7

-3

13

16

2

4

3

8

-3

12

18

1

3

3

7

-3

10

 

Red Maple, Beech

           

12

4

4

2

-3

-2

1

14

3

4

10

-2

-3

9

16

2

3

5

-1

-2

5

18

1

2

3

0

-2

3

 

White Pine

           

12

4

8

17

-3

-4

18

14

3

7

7

-3

-2

9

16

2

6

5

-2

-2

7

18

1

5

3

-1

-1

6

 

Red Pine

           

12

4

7

12

2

-6

15

14

3

6

8

2

-5

11

16

2

5

4

2

-4

7

18

1

4

2

3

-4

5

 

Hemlock

           

12

4

7

2

0

-4

5

14

3

6

11

-1

-5

11

16

2

5

5

-2

-4

4

18

1

4

3

1

-4

4

             

ASSUMPTIONS:
 

Volume: Trees are free to grow due to past thinnings.

 

See basal area growth rate table ; 30-40% added due to increases in merchantable height.

Grade Value: Trees meet the maximum grade specifications for their present diameters due to past thinnings.

 

See Grade Value Increase Rates paper.

Real Market Value: Real stumpage prices follow the same trends as they did 1985-95 (shakey assumption).

 

See NPV Appraisal paper.  See also Pennsylvania Woodlands Timber Market Report (click on Summary of Price Trend Percentages near the bottom of the page) and Price Trends for Standing Timber in the Lake States.  There are no such data online for southern New England.

Management, Taxes, Risk: Costs same as 1985-95, no new risk factors are introduced (shakey assumption).

 

Management costs and town taxes are 20% of annual value increase.

 

Risk assumes 0-2% annual non-salvaged losses, higher for species at higher risk of insect/disease/storm damage.

Karl Davies
March, 1999